JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Jaguars signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a massive contract extension last week, a five-year, $275 million deal that makes him one of the highest paid players in NFL history. The News4JAX sports staff discusses the deal and if it was the right one for the Jaguars.
Good idea or premature to extend Lawrence this offseason?
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Jamal St. Cyr: Great Idea! This is forward-thinking. To be a team that competes now and in the future it takes planning. This is planning. Without a QB, teams have no chance. This locks up the Jags with a QB for the present and the future.
Justin Barney: A necessary one. Yes, it’s an obscene amount of money, but, similar to the forthcoming stadium deal, it’s the cost of doing business in the NFL. Pay now or pay a lot more later. The Jaguars took the common sense path and it was the right one.
Is Lawrence worth $275 million?
JSC: I mean that is a tough question. That price tag speaks more to the state of the market than he does as a player. It is basically inflation. The NFL salary cap has taken huge jumps over the last few years and so have the price tags on contracts. If you look at the cap percentage instead of the price tag Lawrence is now nearly the top-paid QB in the last few years. His contract is more comparable to what Dak Prescott got a few years back than it is to Joe Burrow. So $275 million is a huge number but the jumps in the market have
JB: Is anyone not named Patrick Mahomes worth $275 million? Lawrence was cast as a generational player when he entered the league in 2021. And through three seasons, he hasn’t been a generational player. There is no disputing that. He’s been a top 10 QB at his peak, which came in the latter half of the 2022 season when Lawrence looked like he turned the corner. But the overall body of work has been inconclusive at best. The Jaguars are betting that Lawrence is closer to the peak 2022 version than he is what we saw in 2021 or 2023.
If you were in general manager Trent Baalke’s seat, would you have extended Lawrence this offseason or waited to see more before a deal?
JSC: This was an easy decision. The QB market is like the housing market. It will only go up. It is never going down. Getting the deal done early is always the smart move. With other top-tier QBs looking for contracts, the market could take a massive jump before the season starts. Trevor’s payday looks big even though it is a very reasonable contract. But after Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott get their deals it could look pretty darn reasonable. If you waited until next offseason the price tag would be even bigger. And to throw out a good what if … what if the Jags make a playoff run and Lawrence has a great season? Then you are on the hook for paying top dollar. Not an ideal situation.
JB: I get the reasoning why fans may be skeptical about handing Lawrence such a big deal, but I would have extended Lawrence this year, too. Why, you ask. Did you see the jump in salary cap this year? It increased 13.6%, from $224.8 million to $225.4 million per team. It was the largest increase since the cap was created. It won’t jump like that every year but let’s say it moves up 6 or 7% each of the next two years. Agents tend to mold deals after other players at the position sign new contracts. Behind Lawrence for new deals are Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, and you can bet they get contracts that push the numbers higher. San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant from the 2022 draft, becomes eligible for a new deal next offseason. And he will top Lawrence’s number. A top 10 quarterback costs top of the market money. Jacksonville had to pay it or start all over again in a year or two to try and find its next franchise quarterback. Lawrence is the best option and the Jaguars paid him like it.